RAISE OF GLOBAL WARMING

Aerial view of a fire in the rainforest. Higher temperatures could ignite tropical forests and melt the Arctic tundra, releasing billions of tons of greenhouse gas that could raise global temperatures even more--a vicious cycle that could spiral out of control by the end of the century. 

COIMBATORE READY TO HOST FIRST WORLD CLASSICAL TAMIL CONFERENCE

World Classical Tamil

Coimbatore is all decked up to play host to the first the World Classical Tamil Conference beginning on Wednesday. The five day event is to be inaugurated by President Mrs Pratibha Devi Singh Patil. Thousands of Tamil scholars from across the world including, US, Switzerland, Finland, Singapore, and Malaysia are participating in the conference. A R Rahman has scored music for the theme song of the conference which has lyrics by Chief minister M.Karunanidhi.

Southern Railway has announced special trains for the benefit of people intending to visit Coimbatore for the conference, while the state government has declared a holiday for educational institutions to enable students participate in the event.

Deputy Chief Minister M.K. Stalin inaugurated the Semmozhi Kalaivizha, the cultural show organized as part of the World Classical Tamil Conference in Coimbatore last evening.

Chief Minister Mr M.Karunanidhi leaves for industrial city this morning and will visit the especially designed conference hall giving final touches for this mega event.

      In an interview to AIR, Chief Minister said that the conference assumes significance as it is being organized for the first time, after the language was accorded classical status. He invited people to gather in large numbers to make the five day event a grand success.

TANCET 2010 RESULT

Students can check their TANCET 2010 Results from the official website of Anna University. The direct link to TANCET 2010 Results –http://result.annauniv.edu/result.html. Stundents must enter their Application Number in order to fetch their TANCET 2010 Result.

Tamil Nadu Common Entrance Test (TANCET) is conducted every year by Anna University on behalf of Tamil Nadu Government for admission in the professional post-graduate programmes in various Government/Private universities/institutes in Tamil Nadu which include Anna University-Chennai, Anna University-Coimbatore, Anna University-Trichy, Anna University-Tirunelveli, Government and Government aided Institutes and Government Quota seats in private Institutes.

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NUMBER OF HUMANS WHO HAVE EVER LIVED

Estimates of "the total number of people who have ever lived" published in the 2000s range approximately from 100 to 115 billion (1 E11).

An estimate of the total number of people who have ever lived was prepared by Carl Haub of the Population Reference Bureau in 1995 and subsequently updated in 2002; the updated figure was approximately 106 billion. Haub characterized this figure as an estimate that required "selecting population sizes for different points from antiquity to the present and applying assumed birth rates to each period". Given an estimated global population of 6.2 billion in 2002, it could be inferred that about 6% of all people who had ever existed were alive in 2002.

In the 1970s it was a popular belief that 75% of all the people who had ever lived were alive in the 1970s, which would have put the total number of people who ever lived as of the 1970s as less than the number of people alive today. This view was eventually debunked.

The number is difficult to estimate for the following reasons:

§                     The set of specific characteristics that define a human is a matter of definition, and it is open to debate which members of early Homo sapiens and earlier or related species of Homo to include. See in this regard also Sorties paradox. Even if the scientific community reached wide consensus regarding which characteristics distinguished human beings, it would be nearly impossible to pinpoint the time of their first appearance to even the nearest millennium because the fossil record is simply too sparse. However, the limited size of population in early times compared to its recent size makes this source of uncertainty of limited importance.

§                     Robust statistical data only exist for the last two or three centuries. Until the late 18th century, few governments had ever performed an accurate census. In many early attempts, such as Ancient Egypt and in the Persian Empire the focus was on counting merely a subset of the people for purposes of taxation or military service. All claims of population sizes preceding the 18th century are estimates, and thus the margin of error for the total number of humans who have ever lived should be in the billions, or even tens of billions of people.

A critical item for the estimation is life expectancy. Using a figure of twenty years and the population estimates above, one can compute about fifty-eight billion. Using a figure of forty yields half of that. Life expectancy varies greatly when taking into account children who died within the first year of birth, a number very difficult to estimate for earlier times. Haub states that "life expectancy at birth probably averaged only about ten years for most of human history". His estimates for infant mortality suggest that around 40% of those who have ever lived did not survive beyond one year.

FORECASTS OF SCARCITY

In 1798 Thomas Malthus incorrectly predicted that population growth would out-run food supply by the mid 19th century. In 1968, Paul R. Ehrlich reprised this argument in The Population Bomb, predicting famine in the 1970s and 1980s. The dire predictions of Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians were vigorously challenged by a number of economists, notably Julian Lincoln Simon. Agricultural research already under way, such as the green revolution, led to dramatic improvements in crop yields. Food production has kept pace with population growth, but Malthusians point out the green revolution relies heavily on petroleum-based fertilizers, and that many crops have become so genetically uniform that a crop failure would be very widespread. Food prices in the early 21st century are rising sharply on a global scale, and causing serious malnutrition to spread widely.

From 1950 to 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the world, grain production increased by over 250%. The world population has grown by about four billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution and most believe that, without the Revolution, there would be greater famine and malnutrition than the UN presently documents (approximately 850 million people suffering from chronic malnutrition in 2005). The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon-fueled irrigation.

The peaking of world oil production (Peak oil) may test Malthus and Ehrlich critics. As of May 2008, the price of grain has been pushed up by increased farming for use in bio fuels, world oil prices at over $140 per barrel ($880/m³), global population growth, climate change, loss of agricultural land to residential and industrial development, and growing consumer demand in China and India. Food riots have recently occurred in some countries across the world. However, oil prices have fallen sharply since then, and they have remained below $100/barrel since September 2008. Resource demands are expected to ease as population growth declines, but it is unclear whether rising living standards in developing countries will once again create resource shortages.

Growing populations, falling energy sources and food shortages will create the "perfect storm" by 2030, the UK government chief scientist has warned. He said food reserves are at a fifty-year low but the world will require 50% more energy, food and water by 2030. The world will have to produce 70% more food by 2050 to feed a projected extra 2.3 billion people and as incomes rise, the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said.

The observed figures for 2007 show an actual increase in absolute numbers of undernourished people in the world, 923 million in 2007 versus 832 million in 1995; the more recent FAO estimates point out to an even more dramatic increase, to 1.02 billion in 2009. 

DEMOGRAPHICS

Ethnicity

The world is made up of thousands of ethnic groups. The single largest ethnic group on the planet by far is Han Chinese, which represents 19.73% of the global population.

Youth

Median age by country. A youth bulge is evident for Africa, and to a lesser extent for South and Southeast Asia and Central America.

According to the 2006 CIA World Factbook, around 27% of the world's population is below 15 years of age.

Before adding mortality rates, the 1990s saw the greatest number of raw births worldwide, especially in the years after 1995, despite the fact that the birth rate was not as high as in the 1960s. In fact, because of the 163 million-per-year raw births after 1995, the time it took to reach the next 10⁹ reached its fastest pace (only twelve years), as world population reached six billion people in 1999, when at the beginning of the decade, the reaching was designated for 2000, by most demographers.

1985–1990 marked the period with the fastest yearly population change in world history. Even though the early 1960s had a greater growth rate than in the mid and late 1980s, the population change hovered around eighty-three million people in the five-year period, with an all-time growth change of nearly eighty-eight million in 1990. The reason is that the world's population was greater in the mid- and late-1980s (around five billion) than in the early 1960s (around three billion), which meant that the growth rate in the 1980s was no factor on the dramatic population change.

FORECAST

UN (medium variant, 2008 rev.) and US Census Bureau (January 2010) estimates
Year	UN est (millions)	Diff.	US est (millions)	Diff.
2000	6,115	-	6,084	-
2010	6,909	794	6,831	747
2020	7,675	766	7,558	727
2030	8,309	634	8,202	644
2040	8,801	492	8,749	547
2050	9,150	349	9,202	453

In the long run, the future population growth of the world is difficult to predict and the UN and US Census Bureau give different estimates. According to the latter, world population will hit seven billion in July 2012 or by late 2011, according to UN prediction.

Birth rates are declining slightly on average, but vary greatly between developed countries (where birth rates are often at or below replacement levels), developing countries, and different ethnicities. Death rates can change unexpectedly due to disease, wars and catastrophes, or advances in medicine.

The UN has issued multiple projections of future world population, based on different assumptions. Over the last ten years, the UN has consistently revised these projections downward, until the 2006 revision issued March 14, 2007 revised the 2050 mid-range estimate upwards by 273 million.

In some scenarios, disasters triggered by the growing population's demand for scarce resources will eventually lead to a sudden population crash, or even a Malthusian catastrophe (also see overpopulation and food security).

UN 2008 estimates and medium variant projections (in millions).
Year	World	Asia	Africa	Europe	Latin America	Northern America	Oceania
2000	6,115	3,698 (60.5%)	819 (13.4%)	727 (11.9%)	521 (8.5%)	319 (5.2%)	31 (0.5%)
2005	6,512	3,937 (60.5%)	921 (14.1%)	729 (11.2%)	557 (8.6%)	335 (5.1%)	34 (0.5%)
2010	6,909	4,167 (60.3%)	1,033 (15.0%)	733 (10.6%)	589 (8.5%)	352 (5.1%)	36 (0.5%)
2015	7,302	4,391 (60.1%)	1,153 (15.8%)	734 (10.1%)	618 (8.5%)	368 (5.0%)	38 (0.5%)
2020	7,675	4,596 (59.9%)	1,276 (16.6%)	733 (9.6%)	646 (8.4%)	383 (5.0%)	40 (0.5%)
2025	8,012	4,773 (59.6%)	1,400 (17.5%)	729 (9.1%)	670 (8.4%)	398 (5.0%)	43 (0.5%)
2030	8,309	4,917 (59.2%)	1,524 (18.3%)	723 (8.7%)	690 (8.3%)	410 (4.9%)	45 (0.5%)
2035	8,571	5,032 (58.7%)	1,647 (19.2%)	716 (8.4%)	706 (8.2%)	421 (4.9%)	46 (0.5%)
2040	8,801	5,125 (58.2%)	1,770 (20.1%)	708 (8.0%)	718 (8.2%)	431 (4.9%)	48 (0.5%)
2045	8,996	5,193 (57.7%)	1,887 (21.0%)	700 (7.8%)	726 (8.1%)	440 (4.9%)	50 (0.6%)
2050	9,150	5,231 (57.2%)	1,998 (21.8%)	691 (7.6%)	729 (8.0%)	448 (4.9%)	51 (0.6%)

 

FORECASTS BY REGION

Below is a table with historical and predicted population figures shown in millions.

The availability of historical population figures varies by region.

World historical and predicted populations (in millions)
Region	1750	1800	1850	1900	1950	1999	2008	2050	2150
World	791	978	1,262	1,650	2,521	5,978	6,707	8,909	9,746
Africa	106	107	111	133	221	767	973	1,766	2,308
Asia	502	635	809	947	1,402	3,634	4,054	5,268	5,561
Europe	163	203	276	408	547	729	732	628	517
Latin America and the Caribbean	16	24	38	74	167	511	577	809	912
Northern America	2	7	26	82	172	307	337	392	398
Oceania	2	2	2	6	13	30	34	46	51

World historical and predicted populations by percentage distribution
Region	1750	1800	1850	1900	1950	1999	2008	2050	2100
World	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100
Africa	13.4	10.9	8.8	8.1	8.8	12.8	14.5	19.8	23.7
Asia	63.5	64.9	64.1	57.4	55.6	60.8	60.4	59.1	57.1
Europe	20.6	20.8	21.9	24.7	21.7	12.2	10.9	7.0	5.3
Latin America and the Caribbean	2.0	2.5	3.0	4.5	6.6	8.5	8.6	9.1	9.4
Northern America	0.3	0.7	2.1	5.0	6.8	5.1	5.0	4.4	4.1
Oceania	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5

Estimated world population at various dates (in millions)
Year	World	Africa	Asia	Europe	Latin America	Northern America	Oceania
70,000 BCE	< 1
10,000 BCE	1
9000 BCE	3
8000 BCE	5
7000 BCE	7
6000 BCE	10
5000 BCE	15
4000 BCE	20
3000 BCE	25
2000 BCE	35
1000 BCE	50
500 BCE	100
1 CE	200
1000 CE	310
1750 CE	791	106	502	163	16	2	2
1800 CE	978	107	635	203	24	7	2
1850 CE	1,262	111	809	276	38	26	2
1900 CE	1,650	133	947	408	74	82	6
1950 CE	2,519	221	1,398	547	167	172	12.8
1955 CE	2,756	247	1,542	575	191	187	14.3
1960 CE	2,982	277	1,674	601	209	204	15.9
1965 CE	3,335	314	1,899	634	250	219	17.6
1970 CE	3,692	357	2,143	656	285	232	19.4
1975 CE	4,068	408	2,397	675	322	243	21.5
1980 CE	4,435	470	2,632	692	361	256	22.8
1985 CE	4,831	542	2,887	706	401	269	24.7
1990 CE	5,263	622	3,168	721	441	283	26.7
1995 CE	5,674	707	3,430	727	481	299	28.9
2000 CE	6,070	796	3,680	728	520	316	31.0
2005 CE	6,454	888	3,917	725	558	332	32.9
Jul. 1, 2008	6,707	973	4,054	732	577	337	34.3
Year	World	Africa	Asia	Europe	Latin America	Northern America	Oceania

The figures for North and Central America only refer to post-European contact settlers, and not native populations from before European settlement.

MATHEMATICAL APPROXIMATIONS

However (1975) proposed the following formula:

where

§     N is current population

§     T is the current year

§     C = 2·10¹¹

§     T₀ = 2025

which represents hyperbolic growth with an infinite population in 2025.

According to Kapitsa (1997), the population grew between 67,000 BC and 1965, and the world population growth formula is:

where

§         N is current population

§         T is the current year

§         C = (1.86±0.01)·10¹¹

§         T₀ = 2007±1

§         τ = 42±1

The transition from hyperboles to slower rates of growth is related to the demographic transition.

YEARS FOR WORLD POPULATION TO DOUBLE

Using linear interpolation of the UNDESA estimates, the world population has been doubled or will double in the following years (with two different starting points). Note how, during the 2nd millennium, each doubling has taken roughly half as long as the previous doubling, fitting the hyperbolic growth model mentioned above. However, it is unlikely that there will be another doubling in the current century.

Starting at 500 million
Population (in billions)	0.5		1		2		4		8
Year	1500		1804		1927		1974		2025
Years elapsed		304		123		47		51

Starting at 375 million
Population (in billions)	0.375		0.75		1.5		3		6
Year	1171		1715		1881		1960		1999
Years elapsed		544		166		79		39